Boris Johnson’s First Fortnight

So Boris, our Frankenstein’s Monster, beat the sly old fox, some might say a victory of beef over brains?  To assume however that Frankenstein’s Monster is a buffoon as his image has often portrayed is probably naïve.  This is an individual who went to Eton with all the other ‘Nobs’ and even amongst them all, he supposedly claimed he aimed to become prime minister.  Many a schoolchild may have expressed such a wish during their schooldays, but if you are at Eton (Boris is the 20th British prime minister educated at Eton College) and backed with the lineage that Frankenstein’s Monster possesses, then a wish can also be turned into a reality.  If you consider his buffoonery in detail, it starts to look contrived and carefully staged with periods where absolute lucidity and control is demonstrated. This perhaps provides an insight into his rise to prominence.  The adage that there is no bad publicity certainly is relevant, in addition to Oscar Wilde’s quote;

“There is only one thing worse than being talked about and that is not being talked about!” which is also perhaps pertinent here.

If we assume that Frankenstein’s Monster is not the absolute buffoon he portrays, then we have to be cynical and must, therefore, consider his rise to fame from the ranks of the insignificant and bland Tory MP’s like a carefully planned and executed campaign.  The question is then, how many of his numerous problematic statements and actions such as the assertions about Scousers playing the victim, claims of UK Whiff Whaff invention (a game that can only have been thought up in the hallowed halls of Eton), Letterbox comparisons for women wearing Burkas, misrepresenting what Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was doing in Iran, clearing bodies in Syria and many, many more were planned?

If we assume he is not the buffoon he is often portrayed, then we can then also assume that he is now utilising those impressive brains or group of advisors to find a successful route through the implementation of Brexit.  Since he has arrived in Number 10, he appears already to have shifted the perception of the Brexit situation.  He has suggested action even if the MPs do not agree to it.

One thing certainly appears clear and that is that Frankenstein’s Monster is committed to bringing the UK out of the EU and pretty quickly too.  He has now stated that we will leave on 31st October ‘Deal’ or ‘No Deal’.  He has told the civil service and the country to prepare for a ‘No Deal’ scenario with all their efforts.  This is certainly a statement to the EU, although they have responded to demands by the UK government for a reconsideration of the Theresa the Bruce deal with a firm negative, they are prepared to discuss other elements but not the details of the deal.  I would say however that they are now starting to look inflexible and entrenched after all their position has led to the resignation of one UK Prime Minister. It is difficult to see why they think maintaining their position will help the deal be delivered.  They are at present in danger of losing the ‘moral high ground’. Many individuals are looking at the UK’s proposal regarding charging zero duty on 85% of inbound products as a plan that limits the need for a border in Ireland from a UK perspective but makes it far more problematic for the EU. Yet the EU insists on maintaining the requirement of a Backstop which the UK will never agree to and is not even prepared to negotiate on the matter.

Frankenstein’s Monster has proposed actions that hark back to the era of Revolution and the death of Kings, he has got MP’s filing legal challenges to his proposals to dissolve parliament and has shaken things up.  History will perhaps be the only way we will find out whether this is a good or a bad tactic, but it certainly suggests he has put us on a course of action culminating on 31st October 2019.

The only possibility I can see which could change this is through a move towards a general election. This could be by either the PM’s own choice or perhaps because there is only a majority of one remaining in the House of Commons, it could come about through a vote of no confidence in Frankenstein’s Monster’s, forcing him to go to the country to form a new government.

If we end up in the realms of a general election, then all considerations are then back on the table.  The potential outcome of a general election is incredibly difficult to read due to many factors;

  • Is the country still one that would vote for leaving the EU?
  • There is a resurgence of the Liberal Democrats as a strong ‘Remain’ party with a clear agenda, they could take substantial votes from both the Tories and Labour
  • The rise of the Brexit party under Mr Farage could reduce the Tories parliamentary number substantially
  • The fragility of the Labour vote through criticisms of Comrade One and the anti-Semitic debacle could see Labour’s vote collapse, they were pushed into 4th place in the recent By-election in Brecon and Radnorshire

All these issues are further thrown up in the air when domestic and more day to day influences are chucked into the mix.

So as I have said many times before, although there appears at present to be movement in a certain direction by Frankenstein’s Monster on Brexit, there is still no set path, and most scenarios are still more than possible.

The message to all out there still has to be, therefore prepare for a full ‘No Deal’ on 31st October 2019.

Justin

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