What a week, I wish I was a journalist at the moment – for them Brexit is the gift that just keeps on giving!

So Theresa May has a deal with the EU – admittedly France have agreed only on the basis that they will still have full fishing rights access to all our waters – not sure whether that includes our rivers, reservoirs, lakes, lochs and canals, or what??? It also appears that under the agreement Gibraltar becomes a Spanish territory or something similar at least, that Germany still retains the authority to be able to tell us what to do, and the European Court of Justice can bring us back into line when we are naughty, but it is still a deal and one that once we have signed up to appears to last forever with no obvious way of getting out of it.  Freedom certainly appears to have changed a little in my view if this is it?

Given all that, at least a deal surely takes away allof the uncertainty that UK businesses are especially concerned about, we can all (to coin a phrase) “get on with the job” now of leaving the EU, even if that leaving doesn’t actually appear to be leaving, at least the Brexiteers will be happy!

Oh no that appears wrong too, the Brexiteers are suggesting this fantastic deal isn’t really a Brexit deal and leaves us in Europe, they are even threatening not to support their own party leader when the bill comes to parliament, what a troublesome lot they are – how selfish.  But its ok surely, because if the Brexiteers are against it then the Remainers must in theory, therefore, be for it and surely the old enemy and their glorious leader comrade Corben will come to the rescue!  Oh dear, that doesn’t appear to be the case either, Labour suggest that the deal does not conform to their completely vague 6 points charter – maybe it’s something about annual parliaments or some such thing – I can’t be sure!!!  Anyway, they have made it clear they are not going to support it.  Then just to add a further kick to a struggling premier, the DUP are also refusing to agree to thedeal presumably because it appears to make them more Irish and less British.

If you do the maths in parliament, therefore – the Tories have 315 from a total of 650.   Sinn Fein don’t attend parliament and therefore never vote and in theory neither does the speaker unless it is a tie, leaving a realistic total of 642, therefore a working majority would be321.  The Tories start from a position of being 6 short, which the DUP 10 generally gives them.  Take this away and a further 40ish Tory Brexiteers, and you are down to having only 275, if the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and all the independents voted with the government that would give them 296, still 25 short.  The suggestion is some Labour MPs may break ranks but estimates are perhaps around ten to fifteen.  That would suggest the vote inparliament looks like it would fail.

If that happens though we will be alright because we know exactly what would happen next – oh no sorry we haven’t got a clue have we, options?

1 – A vote of no confidence, a new Tory leader who will create a new deal agreed with the  EU within a matter of days and will carry their whole party, the parliament and the country into a glorious new age?????

2 – A vote of no confidence leading to a general election on the deal with Theresa May winning a landslide and the deal goes through – will the country support it, I am sure that would be the case, for all the reasons explained earlier, we can’t wait to let the French maintain their access to our waters!

3 –   A general election and comrade Corbin sweeps into power with a new broom, organises a new referendum and those 17 million people appear to have miraculously disappeared and we unanimously change our mind and go back to the bosom of European federalism, even though comrade number 1 is actually a Euro sceptic, sorry I mean was a Euro sceptic?

4 – There is a no deal and we come out of the EU on 29th March 2019 and start to work with WTO rules and the world ends or doesn’t – who knows?

Finally, let’s way of fantasise a little and assume that the deal miraculously does go through parliament.  Perhaps due to a bout of food poisoning in the Labour party cafeteria on the day of the vote, then we would move forward to the transitional period, during which we would aim to resolve all the issues we as of yet have been unable to the authority and hope to get a deal of some sort – luckily we can at least wait a little to see what this will look like.

J

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