Well, here we go again. I would like to say there is a sense of Déjà vu in the air, but if I am totally honest it feels a lot more ruthless. This time around, things feel more focussed and it appears increasingly likely that Brexit will happen on 31st October. The sides are if anything more entrenched, but that means also more determined. The 31st October feels like a moment set in time. Frankenstein’s Monster appears adamant that he will not ask for an extension, but parliament has made it illegal for us to leave the EU without a deal. The situation is complicated, to say the least!
The last few weeks have seen parliament prorogued, shortly later that decision was found to be illegal by the Supreme Court. This in itself is unprecedented stuff, after all the Supreme Court is a relatively new affair. The Supreme Court has never intervened in such a high profile situation previously and generally does not get involved with political issues. This time though it has gone straight to the core of the issue and not only ruled that the Prime Minister broke the law, but also that he misled the Queen.
In the same period, we have seen a Prime Minister lose his majority and subsequently repeatedly lose votes in parliament but remain in office, he has even lost a vote to call for a General Election because the opposition is suspicious of his motives and have criticised his intentions, suggesting that he may use an election to sneak Brexit in without further ado. The opposition parties have united to stop Frankenstein’s Monster from calling a general election, but refuse to provide uniformed support for Comrade One as an interim PM.
We have further seen parliament criticise itself and the Prime Minister for the language used in the chamber for being inflammatory, derisive and divisive. The speaker claimed there had been an atmosphere that he had not experienced in his 22 years in the House.
What though does all this mean for you and me?
The answer is still; “who can say?” I feel the atmosphere has changed and we are rolling towards a leave date of 31st October, but that is just a gut feeling. All the logic would suggest we are looking at an extension of some sort on 31st and then a general election sometime shortly after. What the result of the General Election would be is virtually impossible to predict. Some are suggesting a majority win for the Tories, but others suggest a massive increase in MPs for the Liberal Democrats at the other extreme of the Brexit debate. Comrade One has decided to sit on the fence and it is unclear as of yet whether this ploy will win him or lose him votes. The bottom line is that in the event of an election before Brexit occurs, then all options are still on the table including a second referendum.
Amongst all this sits the EU and it has been suggested recently that they may have had enough and might not give an extension. I don’t personally believe this, but it has to be put in the mix. If a General Election is the result of an extension, then I think they are likely to grant one, as this would allow further opportunity for a Remain party to gain power.
If we do go to a ‘No Deal’ on 31st October, then we will need to be ready to tackle massive increased volumes of customs clearances. We are preparing ourselves for this and any subsequent issues which may arise. What else happens is a case of we will just have to wait and see…